Winter is coming back. The consequences of Trump's victory on LGBT+ people in the United States

Article by Rebecca Schneid published on the weekly website Time (United States) on November 9, 2024, freely translated by Giacomo Tessaro

Now that we have to deal with the reality of Donald Trump's election victory, LGBTQ+ people and organizations will have to deal with the reality of his measures, given that the Senate will have a Republican majority.

Throughout his campaign, Trump has displayed his anti-trans rhetoric in his speeches, spot e post on social. One of his post accused Kamala Harris of being pro- "They", not of "you".

Republicans have spent nearly $215 million on anti-trans propaganda. Trump's vitriolic words against LGBTQ+ Americans, especially trans people, are not new: during his first term as President he tried several times to deny them any protection. Now that we're entering his second term, LGBTQ+ Americans are wondering what will happen to their rights.

On Trump's official website you can read his twenty-point platform “Make America Great Again”, named Agenda 47. Here are his priorities for rolling back LGBTQ+ rights, including the plan to “keep men out of women's sports” (which targets the small number of trans women who choose to be part of teams that respect their gender identity) and for “cut federal funding to every school that runs […] radical gender ideology”.

Beyond this, in his speeches Trump has laid out his plan to reverse Biden's anti-discrimination measures and enact new laws that target trans people in particular.

Katie Eyer, a professor at Rutgers Law School, points out that Trump could appoint conservative judges, which would mean a different interpretation of law at the federal level. If until now the courts of appeals have often ruled in favor of transgender people, the Trump presidency could change the situation: “The Constitution acts as a barrier to discrimination, but it is obvious that if we have a [Supreme] Court that is not well disposed towards LGBT people, this barrier may no longer work”.

There are three key points where the Trump presidency could undermine LGBTQ+ rights.

Ban transgender people from serving in the military

During his first presidency, Trump ordered the Defense Department to overturn a 2016 order allowing transgender people to serve in the military, sometimes complaining about the costs of sex reassignment therapy. This ordinance immediately generated a whole series of lawsuits against the central government.

The Biden administration reintroduced the permit in 2021, but experts like Eyer believe a new ban is very likely soon, with the usual aftermath of legal battles.

Restrictions on healthcare services

In recent years, some states have sought to limit gender reassignment-related health benefits for transgender and gender non-conforming minors. Last August the Human Rights Campaign revealed that there are twenty-six states with similar restrictions, home to 39% of transgender youth.

Trump has warned that his administration will follow the lead of these states and seek to block gender reassignment therapies for adolescents by threatening to cut federal funding to hospitals that offer such therapies. This will make it terribly difficult for young people with gender dysphoria to access what many doctors and psychiatrists consider life-saving care.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has already filed numerous lawsuits against these states, and in its press statement about Trump said “We will continue our fight in courts across the country should the second Trump administration make further restrictions.”.

According to Tara McKay, founder and director of the Vanderbilt LGBTQ+ Policy Lab, the situation could get much worse and lead, in many states, to various restrictions on services, also considering that much of healthcare is decided and financed at state level, despite the presence of federal funds: “It is the states that have control over healthcare, so if [Trump] wants to totally ban [medical transition for minors], the progressive states will immediately oppose it, and it will go to the courts. I think we will arrive at a situation similar to that relating to abortion, with states that will protect this right and states that will be incredibly hostile to it, and will target those who want to take advantage of it.". California Governor Gavin Newsom is already taking steps to protect the LGBTQ+ community from the Trump administration.

Trump's plans also depend greatly on the future ruling of the Supreme Court on the case of the prohibition of medical transition for minors wanted by the State of Tennessee (United States vs. Skrmetti). The ruling could set a precedent not only in medical care, but also in the field of civil rights, such as access to public restrooms and sports participation.

McKay highlights another aspect of healthcare that is already affected by Trump's victory: the mental health of LGBTQ+ people. New research from his association shows how negative news coming from the media increases suicidal thoughts among LGBTQ+ adolescents and young adults. Since Election Day, the Trevor Project reports a 700% increase in calls to its hotline.

According to Imara Jones, an American political journalist and transgender activist, the question we should all ask ourselves in relation to transgender health is “How will people react?”: “Will states like New York or California do anything to respond? How will groups that call themselves allies fight back? How will trans people work to build community and support those who will be most affected by the new laws?”.

Dismantle Title IX protections, school curricula, and trans identification on documents

Trump has repeatedly lashed out against trans women who participate in sports competitions. On November 2, during a rally in Virginia, he promised to “keep men out of women's sports”.

His Agenda 47 calls for asking Congress to interpret Title IX to prohibit trans women from participating in women's sports, something he had already attempted to do during his first term.

Biden, during his mandate, ensured that Title IX also protected LGBTQ+ young people, reforming the restrictions imposed by Trump, but neglecting transgender athletes. Trump has promised that on his first day in office he will roll back Title IX protections, but he will need Congress to do so.

According to Simone Chriss, a civil rights lawyer who works on behalf of transgender people, there is not only the fear relating to transgender athletes, but also that Title IX will be interpreted in a way that negatively impacts a large part of the LGBTQ+ community: “I think the main goal is to redefine sex in a way that excludes transgender people. We're already seeing states like Florida redefine [the concept of] sex in all educational settings to make it determined by, well, reproductive functions.".

Not to mention the plan to cut funding for schools that have programs related to gender identity and sexual orientation. In January 2023 Trump was filmed promising to “cut federal funding” to the schools they talk about “gender ideology”.

For Simone Chriss, one of her biggest fears is that Trump could follow Florida's example, and that this could prevent transgender people from identifying with their correct gender.

Earlier this year, the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles announced that state residents will no longer be able to change their gender on their driver's license.

If this measure is extended federally to passports, it will have devastating effects on the transgender community: “Not having documents that reflect who you are impacts every interaction, access to work, housing and many other things. All my transgender clients who don't have a passport, or whose passport doesn't have their real gender or real name, tell me 'Update it as soon as possible, because we only have until January.'”.

Original text: What Trump's Win Means for LGBTQ+ Rights